Predicting Disrupted Network Behaviour Incorporating User Equilibrium with Recourse

Disruptions to a network create uncertainty which affects the rationality of a user as well their familiarity of the road network. Accordingly traditional equilibrium concepts are not applicable when disruptions are present on a network, especially when developing models for the purposes of incident mitigation or disaster planning. To address this need, this work presents the disrupted equilibrium assignment with recourse (DEAR) model that incorporates a decision-making process in which users gain information about the uncertainty created by a disruption as they travel though the network. The core of the work builds on an existing static, Disrupted Network Assignment Model (DNAM) by incorporating and adaptation of the user equilibrium with recourse (UER) model. Demonstration of the model methodology is presented on a simple network with results indicating the necessity to account for the adaptive behaviour of users in light of a disruption.